Geopolitical Risk Index
The Blomstra Geopolitical Risk Index is a composite score (0–100) that quantifies country‑level geopolitical risk. It combines three pillars — Militarization, Conflict Intensity, and Displacement — into a single, transparent measure designed for sovereign risk assessment, portfolio allocation, and supply chain monitoring.
A higher score indicates higher geopolitical risk. The index is refreshed weekly and draws exclusively from authoritative, public data sources.
The Three Pillars
Each pillar captures a distinct dimension of geopolitical stress. They are weighted according to their direct impact on security and stability.
Data Sources
All data is sourced from internationally recognised institutions with open APIs and transparent methodologies.
| Pillar | Source | Indicator | Update Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Militarization | World Bank / SIPRI | MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
Annual (latest year via MRV=1) |
| Conflict Intensity | UCDP (Uppsala Conflict Data Program) | GED (Georeferenced Event Dataset) | Annual, refreshed weekly |
| Displacement | UNHCR Refugee Data Finder | Refugee counts by origin & asylum | Annual, refreshed weekly |
🔍 Auditability: Every data point is verifiable via the original source APIs. We do not use proprietary or black‑box data.
Why Logarithmic Scaling?
Raw indicators vary by orders of magnitude — a country might spend 0.1% of GDP on defence, while another spends 10%. A linear scale would let extreme values dominate the composite. We use logarithmic scaling to ensure that relative differences are captured fairly, and that no single outlier skews the index.
Each pillar has a calibrated floor and ceiling that determine the 0–100 mapping. For conflict and displacement, we add 1 to the rate before taking the log to avoid zero values.
Composite Calculation
The final index is a weighted sum of the three pillar scores:
Weights are fixed and reflect the relative importance of each dimension in driving overall geopolitical risk. If a pillar is unavailable for a given country (e.g., no conflict data), its weight is redistributed proportionally among the remaining pillars.
Risk Tiers
Scores are mapped to four intuitive risk categories:
Transparency & Data Vintage
Every refresh of the index reports the exact data vintage for each pillar — so you know whether you are looking at 2024 or 2025 data. This is displayed in the admin panel and exposed via the REST API.
📅 Example: World Bank: latest available (mrnev=1) · UCDP: 2025 · UNHCR: 2024 · ACLED: trailing 365 days
No hidden assumptions. Every number is traceable to its source.
Limitations
- The index is a snapshot — it does not predict future events.
- Displacement data is a lagging indicator; by the time refugees are counted, the crisis has already occurred.
- The index does not capture all dimensions of risk (e.g., cyber threats, trade dependencies, diplomatic isolation).
- It is a quantitative tool intended to complement, not replace, qualitative analysis.
- Data availability varies by country; some small states may have missing data for certain pillars, which may result in incomplete scores.